Redux: Who Will Win The 2012 Oscars?

Here is what i thought would win a month ago. But opinions and facts have changes. Not only have all the Guilds tallied a final vote, but momentum has changed in a month, and my opinion of who I think deserves to win has changed- mainly because I've seen more movies. The only movie of 2011 that I still need to see is Shame and that will probably only affect who I think will win Best Actor but here is my final* list.

As always I will break up these "winners" into three categories. First, who I think will actually win The Oscar for a particular category. Second, who I think SHOULD win based based off of the ACTUAL Oscar nominations. Third, who I think SHOULD win based upon every movie that was released in 2011.

BEST PICTURE

What Will Win: The Artist
What Should Win (Actual Nomination): The Artist
What Should Win (Every Movie): Young Adult
NOTE: Drive is probably the better overall film and is #2 on my year end list, but I just love Young Adult


BEST DIRECTOR

Who Will Win: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Nicholas Winding Refn (Drive)

BEST ACTOR

Who Will Win: Jean Dujarian (The Artist)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Ryan Gosling (Drive/The Ides Of March/Crazy, Stupid, Love)

BEST ACTRESS

Who Will Win: Viola Davis (The Help)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): N/A
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Andy Serkis (Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes)
SIDENOTE: Shout out to Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) who would be #2 on my list

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Who Will Win: Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): Annie Mumulo and Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
Who Should Win: Diablo Cody (Young Adult)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Who Will Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Who Should Win (Actual Nomination): Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin (Moneyball)
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin (Moneyball)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Who Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (The Tree Of Life)
Who Should Win (Actual Nominations): N/A
Who Should Win (Every Movie): Newton Thomas Sigel (Drive)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Rango
ANIMATED SHORT: The Fantastic Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Iran, A Separation
SONG: Man Or Muppet
SCORE: The Artist
ART DIRECTION: Hugo
COSTUME DESIGN: Hugo
MAKE UP: The Iron Lady
DOCUMENTARY: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Saving Face
LIVE ACTION SHORT: Raju
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
BEST EDITING: The Artist
SOUND MIXING: Transformers: Dark Of The Moon
SOUND EDITING: Transformers: Dark Of The Moon